Review and analysis of electric vehicle supply and demand constraints

Publication date: March 2021


Constraints to the access of electric vehicle supply from overseas markets could result in a scarcity of vehicle volume and choice, potentially slowing the progress of transitioning the domestic fleet.

This work involved a rapid literature review, analysis of vehicle market data, and conversations with vehicle importers and distributors. This report was completed in a short timeframe for research purposes and some areas of the report have not been fully researched. The information provided is intended to be a synopsis for a general overview only and does not represent the views of EECA or government policy.

Key conclusions

  • In the near term (up to 2025) there are expected to be supply constraints due to the limited number of EV models and volumes being produced. This is expected to limit the extent to which all domestic market segments can be supplied.
  • This warrants New Zealand looking to emerging EV manufacturing markets, beyond Japan, to secure EV supply.
  • By 2030, it is expected that global production rates of new vehicles will increase and supply for new EV imports will no longer be constrained.
  • This can be further supported by strategic supplier sourcing strategies with other emerging markets such as China, which is already a major producer and consumer of EVs (although it does not export high volumes currently).