TIMES-NZ 3.0 work in progress release

Also known as the 'alternative energy futures', in consultation with stakeholders, EECA and BEC have produced two future scenarios:

We based these scenarios on feedback about the critical uncertainties that potential users of the model were interested in, including LNG imports, the role of gas and the relative importance of the primary sector to the economy.  Other factors, such as population and GDP, were not identified as critical uncertainties. However, varying these inputs could create more significant differences in outcomes, especially in terms of aggregate energy consumption.

You can download an explanation of the four critical uncertainties underlying these two different paths and the narratives we have used to inform the driving forces behind each scenario here [DOCX 197 KB].

We are seeking feedback on the performance of the two scenarios – more details below.

TIMES-NZ relies on detailed assumptions about New Zealand’s entire energy system.

The assumptions are in various states of review.

Industry, electricity and transport have been reviewed by external sector experts however the other sector assumptions are yet to be externally reviewed.

We welcome feedback on all sectors at this point, but particularly those which have not yet been externally reviewed (oil and gas, biofuels, residential, commercial, and agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors). We are also intending to arrange workshops in the New Year for sectors that have not yet had external input.

You can explore our assumptions for each sector here.

Agriculture [DOCX 239 KB]
Biofuels [DOCX 276 KB]
Commercial [DOCX 244 KB]
Electricity supply [DOCX 217 KB]
Industry [DOCX 215 KB]
Oil and gas [DOCX 461 KB]
Residential [DOCX 516 KB]
Transport [DOCX 249 KB]

Download all as a zip [ZIP 2.2 MB]

As this is a work in progress release there is still work to do, including fixes for a number of issues which we are aware of. This will be completed before releasing the model to a wider audience. Thanks to stakeholders and reviewers who have already contributed to this. We note that in some cases, this could lead to significant changes in the model outputs.

You can visit our github(external link) to see our log of the full list of known issues with the model. 

Work to do and known issues for investigation include: 

• Projected electrification rates are low relative to other sources, which may reflect reality but may also be driven by the full system optimisation nature of the TIMES-NZ model. Specifically, we are finding the model is producing a high cost for meeting peak electricity demand, which is constraining electricity uptake and leading to higher use of other fuels than many other models project. We are interested in feedback on this.
• Residential load curves do not distinguish water heating from space heating in enough detail, meaning that heat pumps used for space heating do not contribute correctly to more efficient peak demand.
• Geothermal emissions factors do not reflect known carbon capture projects or field carbon decay. (We have data on this, but have yet to implement fully.)
• Natural gas cost settings lead to very sharp residential natural gas switching, which is potentially unrealistic as it implies large capital turnover.
• Woody biomass and biogas feedstock supply assumptions are not currently varied between scenarios.
• The generation input data does not currently include diesel peakers, which could be a cost-effective way of providing firming for short-term peak demand events.
• Vehicle utilisation settings are too loose, allowing vehicle users to drive vehicles more to improve efficiency, which is not realistic.
• Hydrogen availability is yet to be modelled

TIMES-NZ is a model of New Zealand’s entire energy system, from upstream fuel supply, to generation, to consumption. It shows how New Zealand could meet future energy demand while minimising total system cost.

It was built for New Zealand based on the International Energy Agency’s TIMES framework, which has been used by more than 60 countries worldwide. It is freely available for use by other organisations.

TIMES-NZ can be used to explore a huge range of different energy futures, showing how factors such as gas supply, oil prices, carbon prices, the cost of EVs and solar (and more) could interact.

We give the model information on the New Zealand energy system as it is today, along with plausible projections for future technology and fuel options, including fuels such as LNG.

It then finds the lowest-cost pathway to evolve the country’s entire energy system to meet expected levels of energy demand, for example demand for transport, manufacturing, residential heating, commercial activity and more. It is built to account for all the linkages and interactions between different parts of the system.

The model doesn’t answer how to run the energy market; instead it can help structure conversations about trade-offs and uncertainties – and the implications of different energy policies.