Grid connected domestic and small scale renewables in New Zealand

Hydro Tasmania Consulting, Climate Managers and Baker & McKenzie have been
engaged by EECA to develop a Business-As-Usual (BAU) case for the take-up rates of
domestic and small-scale grid-integrated renewable energy (electricity) systems in New
Zealand to the year 2030. This report outlines the assumptions and influences affecting
the take-up-rate projections, and includes BAU projections.
Grid-connected domestic and distribution-scale renewable energy (electricity) systems
in New Zealand have experienced limited uptake to date. While systems at the district
level are currently generating modest amounts of electricity, domestic-scale renewable
electricity production is virtually non-existent. A lack of good quality data has prevented
a high confidence level for historic uptake levels for a number of technologies.
Several factors are expected to combine to increase the installed capacity of both
domestic-scale renewables and district-level renewables to 2030; however it is at the
district level that the most significant gains are expected.
By 2030, it is forecast that, in the absence of significant national government policies
and incentives, installed capacity of mini-hydro and district wind will increase from
32MW and 0.8MW to over 50 MW and 30 MW respectively (refer Figure 1-1). With a
number of opportunities available and a growing resource via population growth, landfill
and sewage gas generation should also experience a modest increase in uptake
(22.4MW to 51.8MW).